Abstract
arXiv:2602.17443v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Multi-turn LLM evaluation is typically reported as a single win-rate scalar, conflating distinct capabilities. We introduce AIDG (Adversarial Information Deduction Game), formalizing multi-turn adversarial dialogue as a two-player partially observable stochastic game (POSG) and decomposing performance along Seeker (extraction) and Holder (containment) roles. The decomposition isolates three failure modes: cooperative-prior leakage, constraint-reasoning interference, and inefficient hypothesis-space traversal. Across 439 games over six frontier LLMs, defensive performance is tightly clustered (sigma = 1.9 ELO) while offensive performance varies substantially (sigma = 53.3 ELO); confirmation framing increases extraction odds 7.75x over uninformed deduction (p < 0.00001); and constraint violations account for 41.3% of deductive failures, uncorrelated with scale (rho = 0.0). We position the containment-over-extraction gap not as a surprising finding but as a measurable consequence of locally resolvable defensive decisions versus globally coupled offensive planning, and use the decomposition to attribute the gap per model. All design choices, including turn-decay weighting and the Bradley-Terry rating model, are derived from explicit assumptions.