GIFT-Eval (CRPS) gift-eval-crps Leaderboard
GIFT-Eval probabilistic-forecasting board — aggregate CRPS (Continuous Ranked Probability Score) across the 23 GIFT-Eval datasets; lower is better. Measures probabilistic (distributional) forecast quality rather than point-forecast error. · Metric: CRPS (lower is better)
| # | Model | CRPS | Paper |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TurkForecast-FM-Chronos2-LoRA-v1 | 0.42 | link |
| 2 | STRIDE (+Chronos-2) | 0.45 | link |
| 3 | RAES-Conductance-Ensemble | 0.46 | link |
| 4 | Cobra-Agent | 0.46 | link |
| 5 | metis-autocast | 0.46 | link |
| 6 | TEMPO_ENSEMBLE | 0.46 | link |
| 7 | STRIDE (+Timer-S1) | 0.46 | link |
| 8 | Toto-2.0-2.5B-FT | 0.46 | link |
| 9 | Toto-2.0-FnF | 0.46 | link |
| 10 | RAES-Conductance-Ensemble-V | 0.46 | link |
| 11 | Taichu-TimeSeries-Agent | 0.46 | link |
| 12 | DeOSAlphaTimeGPTPredictor-2025 | 0.47 | link |
| 13 | Prism | 0.47 | link |
| 14 | TSOrchestra | 0.47 | link |
| 15 | TimeRouter | 0.47 | link |
| 16 | Credence | 0.47 | link |
| 17 | MoiraiAgent-leaking | 0.47 | link |
| 18 | TSOrchestra-test | 0.47 | link |
| 19 | MoiraiAgent | 0.48 | link |
| 20 | Toto-2.0-2.5B | 0.48 | link |
| 21 | Samay | 0.48 | — |
| 22 | Toto-2.0-1B | 0.48 | link |
| 23 | Synapse | 0.48 | link |
| 24 | Toto-2.0-313m | 0.48 | link |
| 25 | ZooCast-Top1 | 0.48 | — |
| 26 | PatchTST-FM-r1 | 0.48 | link |
| 27 | TimeCopilot | 0.48 | link |
| 28 | Chronos-2 | 0.48 | link |
| 29 | Timer-S1 | 0.48 | link |
| 30 | Falcon-X | 0.49 | link |