Abstract

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a simple but powerful paradigm for training LLMs: sample a completion, verify it, and update. In practice, however, the verifier is almost never clean--unit tests probe only limited corner cases; human and synthetic labels are imperfect; and LLM judges (e.g., RLAIF) are noisy and can be exploited--and this problem worsens on harder domains (especially coding) where tests are sparse and increasingly model-generated. We ask a pragmatic question: does the verification noise merely slow down the learning (rate), or can it flip the outcome (fate)? To address this, we develop an analytically tractable multi-armed bandit view of RLVR dynamics, instantiated with GRPO and validated in controlled experiments. Modeling false positives and false negatives and grouping completions into recurring reasoning modes yields a replicator-style (natural-selection) flow on the probability simplex. The dynamics decouples into within-correct-mode comp

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