Abstract
We introduce a classical algorithm for sampling the output of shallow, noisy random circuits on two-dimensional qubit arrays. The algorithm builds on the recently-proposed "space-evolving block decimation" (SEBD) and extends it to the case of noisy circuits. SEBD is based on a mapping of 2D unitary circuits to 1D {\it monitored} ones, which feature measurements alongside unitary gates; it exploits the presence of a measurement-induced entanglement phase transition to achieve efficient (approximate) sampling below a finite critical depth . Our noisy-SEBD algorithm unravels the action of noise into measurements, further lowering entanglement and enabling efficient classical sampling up to larger circuit depths. We analyze a class of physically-relevant noise models (unital qubit channels) within a two-replica statistical mechanics treatment, finding weak measurements to be the optimal (i.e. most disentangling) unraveling. We then locate the noisy-SEBD complexity transition as a function of circuit depth and noise strength in realistic circuit models. As an illustrative example, we show that circuits on heavy-hexagon qubit arrays with noise rates of per CNOT, based on IBM Quantum processors, can be efficiently sampled up to a depth of 5 iSWAP (or 10 CNOT) gate layers. Our results help sharpen the requirements for practical hardness of simulation of noisy hardware.