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On The Uncertainty Of Large Language Model-based Multi-agent Systems

·2026

Abstract

Multi-agent systems (MAS) have emerged as a prominent paradigm for leveraging large language models (LLMs) to tackle complex tasks. However, the mechanisms governing the effectiveness of MAS built upon publicly available LLMs, specifically the underlying rationales for their success or failure, remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we revisit MAS through the perspective of uncertainty, considering both intra- and inter-agent dynamics by investigating entropy transitions during problem-solving across various topologies and six benchmark tasks. By analyzing 245 features spanning token-, trajectory-, and round-level entropy, we counterintuitively find that a single agent outperforms MAS in approximately 43.3% of cases, and that uncertainty dynamics are largely determined during the first round of interaction. Furthermore, we provide three key observations: 1) Certainty Preference: reducing uncertainty at any stage for any agent is critical for guaranteeing correct solutions; 2) Base U

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